Wu Yuneng, deputy general manager of Jiangxi Copper Industry Group Corporation, recently stated at the "14th Shanghai Derivatives Market Forum Jiangxi Copper Special Session" that after years of development, China's copper industry is undergoing transformations: copper smelting transitioning from extensive to intensive methods; copper processing shifting from scale pursuit to quality pursuit; copper imports changing from refined copper to raw materials; and copper consumption moving from rapid growth to moderate growth. Under the 'Belt and Road' initiative, China's copper industry should further deepen supply-side structural reform and optimize its industrial layout.

　　The 14th Shanghai Derivatives Market Forum Jiangxi Copper Special Session, hosted by Jiangxi Copper Industry Group Corporation and organized by Jinrui Futures Co., Ltd., attracted over 300 attendees, including experts from the non-ferrous metals industry and representatives from non-ferrous metal enterprises.

　　China's copper consumption to enter a period of moderate growth

　　Wu Yuneng stated that China's period of rapid copper consumption growth has ended, and a period of moderate growth will begin.

　　Relevant data shows that from 2001 to 2009, the average growth rate of copper consumption in China was 13%; from 2009 to 2014, it was 9%; and from 2015 to 2016, it slowed to 3%-5%.

　　He believes that in the next 2-3 years, global forces offsetting the decline in China's copper consumption may come from the US restarting infrastructure projects and investments in 'Belt and Road' countries. In the longer term, emerging economies like India and Southeast Asia will be the next growth drivers.

　　Regarding consumption areas, while traditional sectors face some application substitutions, copper is actively expanding into new areas. Demand is increasing in sectors such as marine aquaculture, seawater desalination, new energy vehicles, charging piles, solar collectors, and air source heat pumps. According to the International Copper Association, the current copper consumption potential of the marine aquaculture net cage market is 460,000 tons; solar thermal utilization during the "13th Five-Year Plan" period will increase copper demand by a cumulative 70,000 tons; in 2020, air source heat pumps will achieve an annual increase of over 50,000 tons; furthermore, driven by national policies, it is expected that by 2020, the cumulative production and sales of pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles will exceed 5 million units, with new energy vehicles driving 400,000 tons of copper consumption; and the construction of charging piles will drive at least 80,000 tons of copper consumption.

　　'Belt and Road' Initiative brings opportunities for copper industry development

　　Wu Yuneng stated that 'Belt and Road' countries currently have relatively low copper demand but abundant mineral resources. China has high reliance on foreign sources for raw materials and large demand, allowing for resource complementarity. Most 'Belt and Road' countries have underdeveloped copper mining, while China's copper mining, selection, and smelting technologies and equipment have reached the world's advanced level, enabling technological complementarity. The 'Belt and Road' Initiative offers significant opportunities for the copper industry, helping improve China's resource security, and non-ferrous metal enterprises can play a significant role in 'Belt and Road' construction.

　　"China is short of copper resources, with foreign dependence exceeding 70%. Copper companies should actively 'go global' and plan for overseas advantageous mine resources early." Wu Yuneng indicated that China's current overseas resources are primarily located in South America and Africa, while the 'Belt and Road' initiative region has enormous development potential. Countries like Kazakhstan, Russia, and Indonesia are rich in copper resources and rank high globally in reserves. Copper companies should actively 'go global', and future resource layouts should increasingly shift towards Central and Eastern Europe, Central Asia, and Southeast Asia along the 'Belt and Road'. Simultaneously, we must promote the 'go global' strategy for advantageous production capacity, based on the principle of proximity to resources and consumption, and plan early for advantageous smelting and processing capabilities overseas.

　　Deepen supply-side structural reform and optimize industrial layout

　　In addition to actively 'going global' and actively deploying overseas markets, Wu Yuneng pointed out that China's copper industry currently suffers from low industrial concentration, uneven distribution of copper resources, smelting capacity, and processing capabilities. It should also improve concentration, strictly control disorderly capacity expansion, and further optimize and upgrade the industrial layout.

　　Data shows that China's copper resources are widely distributed, found in varying degrees in all provinces and cities with confirmed mineral deposits except Tianjin. However, refined copper production is concentrated in East China, while major copper consumption is in East and South China.

　　Wu Yuneng believes that the optimal layout should be smelting near resources and ports to improve efficiency; and processing capacity near consumption areas to improve efficiency. For example, Japan's smelters are all located in coastal areas, facilitating transportation, but about 70% of China's smelting capacity is in inland areas, leading to high transportation costs, large metal losses, and the need for inventory to ensure production. The asymmetric distribution of copper resources and smelting capacity requires further optimization and upgrading of the industrial layout.

　　Supply-side structural reform is a key focus of China's economic reform during the "13th Five-Year Plan." Wu Yuneng emphasized that the copper industry should actively deepen supply-side structural reform—eliminating outdated capacity, exiting excess capacity, shutting down loss-making capacity, and strictly controlling new copper smelting projects and low-end copper rod, wire, and strip projects. Simultaneously, strictly implement national environmental protection and energy consumption policies, improve industrial concentration, and encourage leading enterprises to improve their strength through mergers and acquisitions.

　　Wu Yuneng, deputy general manager of Jiangxi Copper Group Corporation, recently attended the "14th Shanghai Derivatives Market Forum Jiangxi Copper Special Session" and said that after years of development, my country’s copper industry is experiencing a transition from extensive copper smelting to intensive copper smelting. Copper processing changes from the pursuit of scale to the pursuit of quality, copper imports from refined copper to raw materials, and copper consumption from high-speed growth to medium-speed growth. Under the strategic opportunity of "One Belt One Road", China's copper industry The supply-side structural reform should be further deepened, and the industrial layout should be optimized and upgraded.

　　 The Jiangxi Copper Special Session of the 14th Shanghai Derivatives Market Forum hosted by Jiangxi Copper Group Corporation and undertaken by Jinrui Futures Co., Ltd. attracted more than 300 people from non-ferrous industry experts and representatives of non-ferrous enterprises.

　　 China's copper consumption will usher in a period of medium-speed growth

　　Wu Yuneng said that the period of high-speed growth of copper consumption in China has passed, and a period of medium-speed growth will be ushered in.

　　Related data show that the average growth rate of copper consumption in China from 2001 to 2009 was 13%, and the average growth rate from 2009 to 2014 was 9%, and from 2015 to 2016 it has slowed to 3%~5%.

　　 He believes that in the next two to three years, the global force to hedge against the decline in China’s consumption may come from the United States’ reopening of infrastructure and the “Belt and Road” investment activities in related countries. In the longer term, emerging economies such as India and Southeast Asia will be the next growth engines.

　　 From the consumer perspective, while traditional sectors are seeing some substitution of applications, copper is actively exploring emerging fields such as marine aquaculture, seawater desalination, new energy vehicles, charging piles, solar collectors, and air sources. Demand for copper in areas such as heat pumps is increasing. According to the International Copper Association, the current copper use potential in the marine aquaculture cage market is 460,000 tons. During the 13th Five-Year Plan period, solar thermal utilization will drive cumulative copper demand to 70,000 tons; in 2020, air source heat pumps will achieve an average annual new market of more than 50,000 tons; additionally, driven by national policies, it is expected that by 2020, the cumulative production and sales of pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles will exceed 5 million, driving 400,000 tons of copper consumption; the construction of charging piles will drive at least 80,000 tons of copper consumption.

　　The Belt and Road Initiative presents development opportunities for the copper industry.

　　Wu Yuneng stated that while countries along the Belt and Road currently have relatively low copper demand, they possess abundant mineral resources. China, with its high dependence on foreign raw materials and large demand, can complement these resources. Copper mining in most Belt and Road countries is underdeveloped, but China's copper mining, processing, and smelting technologies and equipment are world-leading, allowing for technological synergy. The Belt and Road Initiative has created vast opportunities for the copper industry, enhancing China's resource security. Non-ferrous metal enterprises have a significant role to play in the construction of the Belt and Road.

　　China's copper resources are scarce, with foreign dependence exceeding 70%. Copper companies should proactively 'go global' and secure overseas mine resources early. Wu Yuneng noted that China's current overseas resources are primarily in South America and Africa, while the Belt and Road Initiative offers significant resource development potential. Kazakhstan, Russia, Indonesia, and other countries possess abundant copper resources, ranking globally. Copper companies should actively expand overseas, with future resource allocation leaning towards the Belt and Road routes in Central and Eastern Europe, Central Asia, and Southeast Asia. Simultaneously, it's necessary to promote the expansion of production capacity abroad, prioritizing proximity to resources and consumption, and early deployment of advantageous smelting and processing capabilities overseas.

　　 Deepen supply-side structural reform and optimize the industrial layout.

　　In addition to actively expanding overseas and deploying overseas markets, Wu Yuneng pointed out that China's copper industry currently suffers from low industrial concentration, with an uneven distribution of copper resources, smelting capacity, and processing capacity. Increased concentration, strict control of disorderly capacity expansion, and further optimization and upgrading of the industrial layout are necessary.

　　Data shows that China's copper resources are widely distributed, present in all provinces and cities except Tianjin. Refined copper production is concentrated in East China, while the main copper consumption areas are in East and South China.

　　Wu Yuneng believes the optimal layout should place smelting near resource areas and ports to improve efficiency; processing capacity should be located near consumption areas for increased efficiency. Japan, for example, locates all smelters in coastal areas for convenient transportation. However, about 70% of China's smelting capacity is inland, resulting in high transportation costs, significant metal losses, and the need for large inventories. The asymmetry in copper resource and smelting capacity distribution necessitates further optimization and upgrading of the industrial layout.

　　Supply-side structural reform is key to China's economic reform during the 13th Five-Year Plan period. Wu Yuneng emphasized that the copper industry should actively deepen supply-side structural reforms—eliminating outdated production capacity, exiting excess capacity, shutting down loss-making capacity, and strictly controlling new copper smelting projects and low-end copper rod, wire, and strip projects; simultaneously, strictly implementing national environmental protection and energy consumption policies, increasing industrial concentration, and encouraging leading companies to grow stronger through mergers and reorganizations.