my country's copper consumption will usher in a period of medium growth
Wu Yuneng, deputy general manager of Jiangxi Copper Group Corporation, recently attended the "14th Shanghai Derivatives Market Forum Jiangxi Copper Special Session" and said that after years of development, my country’s copper industry is experiencing a transition from extensive copper smelting to copper smelting. Intensive, copper processing changes from the pursuit of scale to the pursuit of quality, copper imports from refined copper to raw materials, and copper consumption from high-speed growth to medium-speed growth. Under the strategic opportunity of "One Belt One Road", China's copper industry The supply-side structural reform should be further deepened, and the industrial layout should be optimized and upgraded.
The Jiangxi Copper Special Session of the 14th Shanghai Derivatives Market Forum hosted by Jiangxi Copper Group Corporation and undertaken by Jinrui Futures Co., Ltd. attracted more than 300 people from non-ferrous industry experts and representatives of non-ferrous enterprises.
China's copper consumption will usher in a period of medium-speed growth
Wu Yuneng said that the period of high-speed growth of copper consumption in China has passed, and a period of medium-speed growth will be ushered in.
Related data show that the average growth rate of copper consumption in China from 2001 to 2009 was 13%, and the average growth rate from 2009 to 2014 was 9%, and from 2015 to 2016 it has slowed to 3%~5%.
He believes that in the next two to three years, the global force to hedge against the decline in China’s consumption may come from the United States’ reopening of infrastructure and the “Belt and Road” investment activities in related countries. In the longer term, emerging economies such as India and Southeast Asia will be the next growth engines.
From the perspective of the consumer field, although traditional fields are experiencing some application substitutions, copper applications are actively exploring emerging fields, such as marine aquaculture, seawater desalination, new energy vehicles, charging piles, solar collectors, and air sources. The demand for copper in areas such as heat pumps is increasing. According to the data of the International Copper Association, the current copper use potential in the marine aquaculture cage market is 460,000 tons. During the "13th Five-Year Plan" period, solar thermal utilization will drive the cumulative copper demand to 70,000 tons; in 2020, air source heat pumps will To achieve an average annual new market of more than 50,000 tons; in addition, under the promotion of national policies, it is expected that by 2020, the cumulative production and sales of pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles will exceed 5 million, and new energy vehicles will be driven by that time 400,000 tons of copper consumption; the construction of charging piles will drive copper consumption at least 80,000 tons.
“The Belt and Road Initiative” strategy brings copper industry development opportunities
Wu Yuneng said, "One Belt One Road" the country currently has a small demand for copper, but it has abundant mineral resources. China has a high degree of dependence on foreign raw materials and a large demand, which can complement resources. The development of copper mining in most countries along the "Belt and Road" is backward, but China's copper mining, processing, and smelting process technology and equipment have reached the world's advanced level, and technology can complement each other. The "One Belt, One Road" strategy has brought huge space and development opportunities to the copper industry, which will help improve my country's resource security. At the same time, non-ferrous enterprises have a lot to do in the construction of the "One Belt, One Road".
“my country's copper resources are scarce, and its dependence on foreign countries has reached more than 70%. Copper companies should actively ‘go out’ and deploy overseas advantageous mine resources early. "Wu Yuneng said that China's current overseas resources are still mainly located in South America and Africa, while the "Belt and Road" has great potential for resource development. Among them, Kazakhstan, Russia, Indonesia and other countries have rich copper resources, and resource reserves are global In the top rankings, copper companies should actively "go out", and in the future, the resource layout will be more inclined to deploy along the "Belt and Road" routes in Central and Eastern Europe, Central Asia and Southeast Asia. At the same time, it is necessary to promote the advantage of production capacity “going out”, based on the principle of being close to resources and close to consumption, and early deployment of advantageous smelting and processing capabilities abroad.
Deepen the supply-side structural reform and optimize the industrial layout
In addition to actively "going out" and actively deploying overseas markets, Wu Yuneng pointed out that the current Chinese copper industry still has a low industrial concentration, and the distribution of copper resources, smelting capacity, and processing capacity is not symmetrical. Increase concentration, strictly control the disorderly expansion of production capacity, and further optimize and upgrade the industrial layout.
Data shows that my country’s copper resources are widely distributed, and are distributed to varying degrees in all provinces and cities except Tianjin. The refined copper production areas are concentrated in East China, and the main copper consumption areas are in East China. And South China.
Wu Yuneng believes that the optimal layout should be that smelting is close to resource areas and ports to increase efficiency; processing capacity is close to consumption areas to increase efficiency. Take Japan as an example. All smelters are located in coastal areas, which is convenient for transportation. However, about 70% of China's smelting capacity is in inland areas, transportation costs are high, and metal losses are large, and inventory must be accumulated to ensure production. Copper resources and smelting capacity distribution Asymmetry, the industrial layout should be further optimized and upgraded.
Supply-side structural reform is the key and focus of China's economic reform during the "13th Five-Year Plan" period. Wu Yuneng emphasized that the copper industry should actively deepen supply-side structural reforms—eliminate outdated production capacity, exit excess production capacity, shut down loss-making production capacity, and strictly control new copper smelting projects and low-end copper rod, wire and strip projects; at the same time , Strictly implement the national environmental protection and energy consumption policies, increase industrial concentration, and encourage leading companies to become better and stronger through mergers and reorganizations.